In risk management seminars and workshops, we often talk about risks that have occurred in the past, i.e. risks that have already been experienced (or at least the consequences of the risk). However, it is much more difficult to identify risks that have not yet materialised. Unknown risks.
This problem seems to occur not only in internal workshops with selected companies, but also with the mass of risk managers. If we look at the Allianz Risk Barometer 2020, we find no reference to a pandemic among the top 10 risks. For this survey, Allianz interviewed 2,700 risk management experts in 102 countries. The survey was conducted in October and November 2019, some time before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. A look at the appendix of the study shows that 3% of respondents cited “health problems (e.g. outbreak of a pandemic)” as a risk. It was categorised as a risk in 17th place. So a pandemic was not seen as a major risk. However, we now know what happened a few months later.
This year’s Allianz Risk Barometer (https://commercial.allianz.com/news-and-insights/reports/allianz-risk-barometer.html) shows that both “macroeconomic developments” and “political risks and violence” are seen as less important than in 2024. Macroeconomic developments are seen as a major risk by 15% of experts (last year: 19%, down two places), political risks and violence are seen as a key risk by 15% of respondents (same figure as last year, down one place). The survey was conducted again in October and November of last year. More than 3,700 experts from 106 countries were surveyed.
Looking back at the start of Trump’s presidency, it is clear that there are serious macroeconomic developments and political risks. The question arises: If even 3,700 experts in 2024 and 2,700 experts in 2019 – with a few exceptions – were wrong, what can be done to recognise and predict the major risks more accurately, more effectively, simply better?